As for Iain Dale - a famous blogger Dori made attempts to predict the results of the European pchom

As for Iain Dale - a famous blogger Dori made attempts to predict the results of the European pchome shopping elections in every constituency in the UK, I'm pchome shopping going to make an attempt to do the same. It's awful hard to draw meaningful conclusions from this time because the polls over the place - so it is impossible to have effective data base. However I've chosen a set of sub pol - those who have said that they are 100% certain to vote in the latest poll ComRes Europe - as the basis for my prediction for each constituency English. This gives a much higher vote UKIP than most approaches are suggesting - and one lower for Labour. But I believe it is essential to take into account the likelihood to vote in an election where less than a third vote. My knowledge (or lack of information) I've used in predicting the results in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Result 2009 always comes first, then predict Iain Dale and then mine. Northern Ireland
I'm pretty sure that ID is wrong about this. The voting method here is different to that found elsewhere in the UK - STV rather than D'Hont. This makes it much easier to predict - at least in the case of Northern Ireland. The two first seat is completely safe - it will be the first SF while the DUP is the second. I expect the UUP keep their seats and come third. I will take the third seat in either the SDLP or SF in the future - but a decade too early for the majority of the nationalist register to vote. It is possible to TUV - unionist parties that oppose the Good Friday Agreement have the third seat, but that is a small possibility. There are some claims that Adams arrested by the PSNI is likely to encourage more nationalists to vote, and that would give hope to the SDLP. But in my opinion the dispute to small flags in Belfast drags out more unionists too.
An ID is correct to predict pchome shopping that the SNP took the third seat, but I'm not so sure that the Tories have one. I know UKIP is not popular back in the gwybodysion in Scotland, but the wind in their sails, and they may well come before pchome shopping the Tories, although it is likely to be close. There is some evidence to suggest that polio too. It's my money to UKIP on - but without a great deal of confidence.
North East England's ID claims that this is easy and that UKIP, Labour and the Tories have um each. I think it is wrong and that UKIP and Labour have more than twice the Tory vote - meaning that whatever one comes first will get two seats. pchome shopping Labour is likely to do so.
East Midlands This is a very difficult one. I agree that the Lib Dems will lose a seat to UKIP, but it will be found and if the Tories lose their seat for Labour. It could happen very easily, but I'm going to go with ID on this - the Tories and Labour to stand at 2 to stay at 1.
West Midlands: This is quite simple. UKIP is likely to be comfortably ahead of Labour and the Tories so they will have an extra seat. The Tories are likely to fall behind Labour and the Lib Dems are performing very ill.
South West UKIP would come well ahead of everyone else here, and are very likely to have three seats. I do not agree that the Lib Dems have a seat, it is more likely to go to Labour - although it will be close.
The South East England maths yu man right here for the last seat, but it is quite possible that ID is correct and that the Lib Dems will lose two seats. pchome shopping If they are held either at the expense of Labour or the Greens. If the Lib Dems will keep this seat when that will happen.
Wales I have said from the outset that Labour will get two seats in Wales, but I'm not so sure now. Would not surprise me greatly if they can not reach 30%. A YouGov polls suggest that the party's seat at risk with the latest suggesting a level of 11% - this would not be enough support to keep the seat. I'm pretty sure that this is too low - would suggest more of a fall in support for the party in Wales than in the support of the Lib Dems and the Tories over Britain. I can not think of any narrative that would explain it. I keep waiting for the party to have at least 15% of the vote. Less than that would be a great disappointment to me. A vote for UKIP is increasing - as everywhere else - and they will keep their seats. I see the Tories fell from first to fourth and probably lose the seat. This finding is based in part on the continued failure of the Tories to get their vote out in a long series of by-elections in Wales over a period of two years.
Lab 2 1 Tory Party